Ratings agency Crisil on Monday cut its FY14 growth forecast for India to six per cent from the earlier 6.4 per cent citing a variety of reasons, including the high lending rates, weaker pick-up in consumption and issues around mining and project clearances.
India Ratings & Research (Ind-Ra) has projected the aggregate fiscal deficit of states to rise to 3 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026-27 (FY27), from an estimated 2.8 per cent in 2025-26 (FY26), citing higher revenue expenditure amid election-related pressures and scheme cost-sharing requirements.
Elaborating on its not-so-pleasing outlook on the economy, Crisil said private consumption demand, which has been the bulwark of growth for the last few decades, grew by a pale 3.1 per cent in the first quarter as against 7.2 per cent growth in the preceding quarter.
Bank of Baroda economists project India's GDP to grow 6.5-6.8 per cent in FY27 but warn that the fiscal deficit could overshoot the budgeted 4.3 per cent target, potentially reaching 4.7-4.8 per cent of GDP due to subsidy overruns, excise duty cuts, and oil marketing company losses.
Not a single retail outlet ran dry. Every household that wanted a cylinder got one. India faced neither a 1991 moment nor a 2013 one. Macroeconomic stability held. This was not an accident, and it was not luck alone. It was the work of a government that chose to act as it had during the pandemic -- deliberately and gradually, building one measure upon another rather than reaching for a single dramatic lever, explains V Anantha Nageswaran, chief economic advisor to the Government of India.
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) expressed concerns about inflation becoming generalised and highlighted uncertainties surrounding both inflation and growth prospects due to the West Asia conflict, according to the recently released minutes.
The National Council of Applied Economic Research has revised its forecast for the country's gross domestic product growth for 2006-07 to 8.44 per cent
The IMD is predicting close to a 60% probability of deficient rainfall, which means there is a strong possibility that the monsoon this year will be poor.
RBI lowers GDP forecast for FY16 to 7.4%
The Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy has revised its GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 6.7 per cent from 6.2 per cent announced last month.
India's economy experienced a growth of 7.8 per cent during the October-December quarter of 2025-26, according to the new series of national accounts with 2022-23 as the base year.
The Indian government is set to accelerate reforms, including measures to enhance foreign direct investment, speed up divestment, and boost asset monetisation, to maintain economic growth despite rising fuel and fertiliser import costs driven by the West Asia crisis.
The IMF on Monday raised India's growth projection to 7.3 per cent for fiscal 2025-26, up 0.7 percentage point from its October forecast, on the back of better-than-expected performance of the economy. The Washington-headquartered multilateral lending agency has also revised India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth forecast to 6.4 per cent for fiscal year 2026-27 beginning April 1, 2026, from its earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.
The Indian economy recorded a six-quarter high growth of 8.2 per cent in July-September, as factories churned out more products in anticipation of a consumption boost from the GST rate cut, according to government data.
Citing faster-than-expected recovery, rising consumer confidence and the resultant spending spike, Swiss brokerage UBS Securities has revised upwards its growth forecast for the current fiscal to 9.5 per cent from 8.9 per cent in September. The brokerage also sees the economy clipping at 7.7 per cent in FY23 but moderating to 6 per cent in FY24, as it expects the benefit of the low-interest rate regime to end by the end of FY23, and it sees the central bank hiking policy rates by 50 bps in the second half of the next fiscal. The Reserve Bank also forecasts 9.5 per cent GDP growth this fiscal while the average projection ranges from 8.5 to 10 per cent.
India emerged reasonably well from 2025. But now, the oil shock and war-related supply disruptions have again driven funds out of India and significantly weakened the rupee, points out Ajay Chhibber.
Investment bank JPMorgan has cut the GDP growth forecast for India for 2008-09 to 7 per cent from 7.5 per cent previously, citing expected moderation in industrial and service sector growth. The International Monetary Fund and Crisil have projected 8.2 per cent and 8.5 per cent GDP growth respectively. 7% is the lowest growth forecast for 2008-09 so far. JPMorgan said cut in growth expectations for India was due to US slump. It expects RBI to cut repo rate by 25 basis points.
Financial services major BNP Paribas on Wednesday cut India's GDP growth forecast for the current fiscal to 3.7 per cent from 5.7 per cent earlier, saying the country's 'macro muddle' is fast approaching crisis proportions.
Goldman Sachs has materially lowered its earnings growth forecast for Indian companies by a cumulative 9 percentage points over the next two years.
A prolonged supply shock can transmit to lower incomes, and dampen confidence and sentiment, warns Aditi Nayar, chief economist, head-research and outreach, ICRA.
India's economy is projected to maintain growth above 7 per cent in 2026-27 (FY27), supported by strong domestic consumption and investment, even as global growth faces risks from geopolitical tensions, according to industry body Assocham.
'Once the currency goes out of the hand, then possibly your major challenge is that it will not come back.'
The downward surprise in Q2 stemmed from a stronger-than-anticipated drag from gross fixed capital formation and marginal weakness in private final consumption expenditure. In Q3, projection errors emanated mainly from a steep unanticipated contraction in gross fixed capital formation, which was the deepest in the new series of GDP.
The Indian economy is likely to grow at 7.4 per cent in 2025-26, up from 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal, mainly on account of better performance of manufacturing and services sectors, as per the government data released on Wednesday.
'The West Asia or the Gulf crisis has shown that what we develop as national infrastructure when things are not as bad as they could be, we forget to plan for adversities.'
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty closed on a flat note in a choppy session on Wednesday as gains in PSU banks and auto shares were offset by losses in IT stocks.
In the first quarter of FY14, real GDP growth estimated by the Central Statistics Office stood at 4.4 per cent on a factor cost basis, and at 2.4 per cent on a market price basis, the IMF said.
The benchmark BSE Sensex's trailing 12-month price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple has declined to 20.2x, its lowest since May 2020, driven by a record $42 billion FPI selloff since September 2024 and concerns over corporate earnings and economic growth.
Uncertainties stemming from the West Asia crisis and its potential impact on inflation and economic growth were key factors in the Reserve Bank of India's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) decision to maintain the status quo on interest rates, according to the recently released MPC meeting minutes.
Despite the rash of reform steps announced over the weekend, Standard Chartered India on Monday sharply lowered its GDP growth forecast to 5.4 per cent for FY'13 from 6.2 per cent earlier, citing slowing consumer demand, an anaemic industry and a weak services sector.
The IMF's predictions for India's near-term growth may seem rosy, but the usual caveats apply - that is, we are apt to under-perform.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday slashed India's economic growth projection for 2022 to 7.7 per cent, saying that rising interest rates, uneven monsoon, and slowing global growth will dampen economic momentum on a sequential basis.
India's economy is expected to grow 6.4-6.7 per cent during the current financial year driven by strong domestic demand, even as geopolitical uncertainty poses downside risks, the newly appointed CII president Rajiv Memani said on Thursday.
S&P Global Ratings on Tuesday cut India's GDP growth projections to 6.5 per cent for the next fiscal as it expects that economies in the APAC region will feel the strain of rising US tariffs and pushback on globalisation. In its Economic Outlook for Asia-Pacific (APAC), S&P said despite these external strains, it expects domestic demand momentum to remain solid in most emerging-market economies.
While the latest consensus still suggests growth will beat the rate of less than 5 per cent seen in the past two years, it does not reflect the stock market euphoria since Prime Minister Narendra Modi's historic election win two months ago.
Even if there is an early agreement on a cessation of hostilities in West Asia, the price shock will not go away easily, points out A K Bhattacharya.
Macroeconomic data, global geopolitical developments and rising concerns over AI-related disruptions are likely to dictate sentiment in the stock market next week, even as investors may remain cautious amid ongoing volatility, according to analysts.
A top panel of economists on Monday slashed its forecast for US economic growth this year, saying the threat of war with Iraq was dampening consumer spending and business activity.
There are some apparent paradoxes visible in the data from the first quarter of 2025-26 (Q1FY26). The gross domestic product (GDP) delivered a positive surprise with 7.8 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) growth.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
